
UFC 100, taking place in the home base of the UFC, Las Vegas, will be held on July 18. The card for UFC 100 is stacked, as the organization has long pegged this event as a major milestone and a premier, once in a lifetime event.
A rematch between Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir for the heavyweight championship headlines the card. Welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre is taking on challenger Thiago Alves, former two division Pride champion Dan Henderson is taking on onetime Ultimate Fighter winner and fellow Ultimate Fighter coach Michael Bisping in a middleweight clash and Jon Fitch is taking on Paulo Thiago in a match that will send the two men in opposite directions in the deep welterweight field.
Here is a complete preview and a full set of UFC 100 predictions.
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir Preview
A highly anticipated rematch will be taking place as the headline bout for UFC 100, as Brock Lesnar defends his heavyweight belt against Frank Mir. In their first match – Lesnar's debut in the UFC – Mir capitalized on a mistake to submit the former WWE star. Since then however, Lesnar has looked absolutely dominating against Heath Herring and Randy Couture. Mir also looked impressive in his TKO win over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.
In their first match, Lesnar had the early upper hand early on but it was Mir who was able to submit the overeager and still green Lesnar. Lesnar has improved a great deal since then, and while this may be the best and most well rounded Frank Mir we've ever seen, he doesn't have the raw physical ability that Lesnar has (who does?). Lesnar will avoid making any costly mistakes and will wear Mir out, stopping him with strikes by the third round. Lesnar TKO3 Mir to retain the heavyweight championship at UFC 100.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves Preview
What does a 5 fight winning streak look like for the man that stands on top of the incredibly deep welterweight division? For Georges St. Pierre, it looks something like wins over Josh Koscheck, Matt Hughes, Matt Serra, Jon Fitch and B.J. Penn. Not a bad list. Thiago Alves has been on a tear of his own though, winning his last7 fights since losing to Fitch in 2006, including wins over Koscheck, Hughes and Karo Parisyan.
Alves is certainly a worthy challenger for St. Pierre's welterweight title at UFC 100. He has great power with all of his strikes and he's an explosive athlete with a good base of jiu-jitsu. St. Pierre however is arguably the best athlete in the entire sport, and may be the most complete package of any active fighter as well.
After losing his title to Serra he regained his focus and drive, and as good as Alves is, he's just another strong contender that won't be able to break down the champion, a man that's superior in nearly every single discipline. Anderson Silva is busy testing himself at light heavyweight, but will St. Pierre end up moving up to middleweight for a pound for pound battle? St. Pierre TKO4 Alves to retain the welterweight championship at UFC 100.
Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping Preview
The two competing coaches from the Ultimate Fighter U.S. vs. U.K. will meet at UFC 100 to settle their score in a middleweight clash. Dan Henderson is 2-2 in his four fights since returning to the UFC. He lost a close decision to Quinton Jackson and was submitted by Anderson Silva, before rebounding recently with a close decision over Rich Franklin. Michael Bisping dropped down to middleweight and most recently won a decision over Chris Leben.
Despite what the UFC tells me – and gee, I wonder what their motivation is, exponentially growing the entire U.K. market by showcasing one high profile fighter? Hmm… – I don't think Bisping is a world beater. He lost the bout to Matt Hamill regardless of what the record shows, and hasn't fought any top competition at middleweight, Leben included – again, despite what the UFC tried to tell me about how good and how reformed Chris Leben is.
Henderson is a more complete package which will cancel out Bisping's athleticism and striking. He might be near the end of his rope, but Bisping won't be able to capitalize on it. Henderson wins a unaminous decision over Bisping at UFC 100.
Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago Preview
Jon Fitch was setting the welterweight division on fire until he met up with champion Georges St. Pierre and ended up losing a unanimous decision. Paulo Thiago is coming off a devastating knockout victory over Josh Koscheck in his UFC debut. Which welterweight contender will work his way closer to a title shot by winning at UFC 100?
I actually was not overly impressed with Thiago in the Koscheck bout. It's hard to criticize with a devastating knockout win over a strong contender, but Thiago looked sloppy until he connected. Fitch is a more complete fighter than Koscheck, and won't let himself get caught by sloppy strikes. He also is a bull on the ground and won't fall into any submission traps as he maintains a dominant position. Fitch wins a unanimous decision over Thiago at UFC 100.
These are the four main bouts for UFC 100. Also on the card, Alan Belcher will take on Yohihiro Akiyama and Stephan Bonnar will face Mark Coleman. I hope you enjoyed this UFC 100 preview and we'll see how the predictions hold up come fight time.
For MMA fans, 2009 offered a number of outlets to watch great mixed martial arts competition.
Although Strikeforce made incredible leaps and bounds during the year, the UFC has to remain the top promotion in the sport.
Whatever the general public thinks of Dana White does not really matter anymore. The outspoken UFC president has taken the Zuffa owned promotion and put the personal work into it making sure, not only the die-hard fans, but everyone knows what the UFC is and how entertaining it can be.
The sport is where it is at now thanks to the UFC, it’s talented roster of fighters and the people behind the scenes.
It’s difficult to argue against the MMA juggernaut when they were able to put on their 100th show and break over five million in pay-per-view buys in the process. This kind of longevity is not seen everyday in the business. Just look at what happened to Affliction.
What Dana White labeled “the t-shirt guys” tried to put on shows the quality of the UFC and did so, however, bankruptcy ultimately consumed whatever money they made off of just two events.
Stirkeforce is nibbling at the toes of their promotional counterpart in the sense that they have gone from local show to national giant in the matter of months and are close behind. The San Jose-based organization may have some great things planned for 2010, but in 2009 they could not produce the combination of content and quality that the UFC has been able to put together.
Fights like BJ Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre II have the epic impact going into fight night where it overshadows any other MMA news coming off the wire. Only the UFC has the ability to put two of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the same cage. Although they acquired, arguably, the best Heavyweight ever in Fedor Emelianenko, Strikeforce struggles to put their champion, Alistair Overeem, in the same cage as the Russian.
Two champions in one fight versus one champion refusing to compete? Edge: UFC.
Let’s not consider fighters for a moment. Let’s take a look at the year as a whole.
The UFC has managed to put together 15 UFC numbered events, three UFC Fight Nights, and two Ultimate Fighter finales. This consistency is remarkable beyond just MMA. In a time where the economy is at it’s worst in years, the UFC continues to grow and prosper without a hint of let up.
In other sports, entire teams are filing for bankruptcy. The Phoenix Coyotes filed Chapter 11 in May due to a lack of income from their product. That being said, who puts a hockey team in the desert?! Come on, really?!
With so many events put together in a 12-month span, the UFC solidifies itself as a pinnacle of business success. Strikeforce will, perhaps one day, produce several quality shows in the span of a year, but it was the UFC that opened every opportunity for spectatorship in ‘09.
Monthly consistency versus here and there enjoyment? Advantage: UFC
Last, and most certainly not least, the fighters themselves have put in the most physical effort to ensure the UFC stays the top promotion in all of MMA.
As simple as can be, the UFC roster is the most talented in the world. BJ Penn, Georges St. Pierre, Anderson Silva and a host of others lead the way to mainstream success for the Las Vegas-based promotion.
Anytime these names come up as ones headlining a UFC card, a frenzy begins. Others, like Lyoto Machida and Shogun Rua, make headlines after a controversial fight in Los Angeles only to make way for one of the most anticipated rematches in the sport’s history.
When you talk of, pound for pound, best in the world, each of the UFC’s five divisions offer at least one candidate.
Not only are all five divisions strong, but the light heavyweight division stands out as beacon weight class in mixed martial arts. As 2009 has shown us, the light-heavyweight title can change hands in the matter of one fight.
Three champions in one year and it is not because the previous champion was a joke. Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans then Lyoto Machida; all quality 205-pounders who gained the title and have been beaten up defending it due to the Mariana Trench like depth of the division…The Mariana Trench is the deepest on the planet, for those who didn't catch that.
I mention Lyoto Machida as one who has been beaten up, but never lost the title. His clash with Shogun was a fight that was etched in all of our minds, and we continue to talk about it to this date, two months post fight.
The recent signing of Dan Henderson added some additional weight to the Strikeforce roster, but it does not put them over the top. The potential for Strikeforce to make tremendous things happen has not been around since the Fertita brothers purchased the UFC in 2002, but they have yet to carry the division-by-division mojo that the UFC did this year and years prior.
Stacked against each other, division for division, the UFC out-weighs Strikeforce. Look to see Scott Coker and Co. gain a few pounds of power and muscle in 2010.
The UFC is still the upper echelon of mixed martial arts organizations. Bottom to top, the promotion stands firm as the leader in revenue, fighters, shows and mainstream success. This, however, will not slow down the meteoric rise of Strikeforce. As long as the people behind the scenes are smart with the money and the fighters continue to perform at the rate they have been on, Strikeforce may soon be considered the top dog.
2009 was the beginning of a great rivalry between the UFC and Strikeforce, but Dana and the Fertitas remain on the peak of the MMA promotional mountain.
Around this time last year, I wrote an article entitled Ultimate Fighting Championship: Crunching The Numbers, where I broke down the statistics for every UFC fight of the Zuffa era (UFC 31 through UFC 92). With the UFC's final event of 2009 in the books, it is once again time to crunch the numbers.
Before we start, here are a few things to keep in mind:
1) Unlike my previous article, I collected data from every UFC event of 2009, not just PPV events. This includes Ultimate Fighter Finales and UFC Fight Nights.
2) Catchweight bouts include scheduled catchweight bouts (i.e. Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort), as well as ones created by fighters missing weight (i.e. Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida).
3) Title fights include title defenses and unifications.
4) Decisions include unanimous, majority, and split.
5) Knockouts include KO's, referee stoppages, and injuries.
Overall breakdown:
There were a total of 216 fights inside the octagon in 2009. Of these 216 fights, 73 ended by knockout, 49 by submission, 65 by unanimous decision, and 25 by split decision. There has also been a majority decision, a draw, a disqualification, and a no contest.
Lightweights:
The lightweights fought 55 times. Up until 2009, 47 percent of lightweight fights went the distance. This year, they went the distance only 42 percent of the time. Their submission percentage increased (34 percent up from 27 percent), and their knockout percentage remained the same (24 percent).
Welterweights:
Welterweight was the busiest division with 56 fights. Until 2008, the welterweights had nearly an equal number of knockouts (39), submissions (34), and unanimous decisions (36). In 2009, they had 18 knockouts, 18 unanimous decisions, and only 10 submissions.
Middleweights:
The middleweights fought just 36 times in 2009. They were almost even across the board with 14 decisions, 12 knockouts, and 10 submissions. Until 2009, only 29 percent of middleweight fights went the distance. This year, they went the distance 39 percent of the time.
Light Heavyweights:
The light heavyweights fought 34 times. Until 2009, nearly one half of all light heavyweight fights ended by knockout. This year, only one third of the fights ended by knockout.
Heavyweights:
The heavyweights were the least busy division, fighting only 26 times. 21 of the fights (81 percent) ended early, including 15 knockouts.
Catchweight Fights:
There were nine catchweight fights—five knockouts and four unanimous decisions.
Title Fights:
There were eight title fights in 2009—two in each the lightweight, welterweight, and light heavyweight divisions, one in each the middleweight and heavyweight divisions. Of the eight fights, three went the distance, four ended via KO, and one ended via submission.
Did you know?
-Krzysztof Soszynski (kimura) and Jon Jones (guillotine) were the only light heavyweights to win by submission.
-Jon Jones also had the only DQ of 2009 (illegal elbows). There have only been four DQ's in UFC history, and three have come in the light heavyweight division.
-UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs. Stephens and UFC 103: Belfort vs. Franklin tied for the highest number of stoppages with nine.
-UFC 94 set a UFC record with five split-decisions (Karo Parisyan's victory over Dong Hyun Kim was later ruled a NC).
-Parisyan/Kim was the only NC of the year.
-Between UFC 31 and UFC 92, only two middleweight fights ended via split decision. In 2009 alone, there were four.
-Between UFC 31 and UFC 92, 53 of the 63 PPV events (84 percent) included at least one title fight. In 2009, only seven of the 15 PPV events (47 percent) had title fights.
-Champions successfully defended their titles 87.5 percent of the time. Lyoto Machida was the only new champion of 2009.
-The guillotine was the most lethal submission of the year with 16 victories. The rear naked choke was a close second with 13 victories.
-The only armbars, d'arce chokes and anaconda chokes came in the lightweight division.
-Best gyms in MMA? Jackson's (11-12), Xtreme Couture (9-12), and American Top Team (8-12) all finished the year with sub .500 records. Black House/Team Nogueira (9-0) and American Kickboxing Academy (9-3) fared much better.
Storylines to follow in 2010:
-There were 25 split decisions in 2009, a dramatic increase from previous years. Are fighters more evenly matched, or are judges simply becoming more indecisive?
-On that same note, in the history of the UFC, no title fight has ever been decided by split decision. Will 2010 be different? Machida vs. Shogun II, perhaps?
-Since the Zuffa era began, Matt Hughes and/or Georges St-Pierre have been involved in every welterweight title fight. Will GSP vacate the belt and move to 185?
-BJ Penn has defeated every other lightweight champion in UFC history. Will 2010 be the year he vacates the belt?
-In 2004 and 2006, every heavyweight fight ended via stoppage. How many heavyweight fights will go the distance in 2010?
That concludes the statistical breakdown of 2009. It'll be interesting to see what's in store for MMA fans in the upcoming year. Happy holidays, everyone.
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